Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 3.415074 3.704215 4.034868 4.448474 4.963798 5.602926 6.489468
2025-02-09 3.036160 3.399670 3.847439 4.463039 5.333612 6.617259 8.932093
2025-02-16 2.818855 3.220726 3.740551 4.504926 5.699917 7.767429 12.888817
2025-02-23 2.596654 2.997211 3.528564 4.338883 5.681992 8.263859 16.687156
2025-03-02 2.477987 2.892258 3.457409 4.356251 5.956606 9.510604 29.672873
2025-03-09 2.373348 2.793836 3.380094 4.344607 6.170370 10.837290 103.515924
2025-03-16 2.263606 2.678452 3.264610 4.249704 6.191190 11.695676 NaN
2025-03-23 2.215516 2.644490 3.264559 4.346257 6.643021 14.773818 NaN
2025-03-30 2.118165 2.533694 3.137717 4.201405 6.504757 15.225140 NaN
2025-04-06 2.027011 2.427169 3.010440 4.042333 6.298713 15.144877 NaN
2025-04-13 1.957831 2.349152 2.922652 3.946675 6.230560 15.878407 NaN
2025-04-20 1.935772 2.338099 2.938227 4.043003 6.680373 21.825093 NaN
2025-04-27 1.928045 2.349228 2.992513 4.227908 7.493187 47.760747 NaN
2025-05-04 1.888869 2.311306 2.964052 4.244771 7.822826 131.100256 NaN
2025-05-11 1.856423 2.281727 2.947000 4.282722 8.256874 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.795367 2.205916 2.847492 4.133285 7.939329 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.765329 2.176467 2.825107 4.148951 8.277742 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.733205 2.142395 2.792631 4.138450 8.515603 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.691558 2.092065 2.729483 4.052747 8.396453 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.678529 2.085578 2.741880 4.139938 9.124021 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.634507 2.029105 2.663762 4.009049 8.727369 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.590128 1.971152 2.581483 3.864743 8.248746 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.555887 1.928393 2.524809 3.777678 8.045521 NaN NaN